ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING PRODUCTION AND FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRODUCTION OF WHITE CRYSTAL SUGAR AT SUGAR FACTORY MODJOPANGGOONG TULUNGAGUNG
Septia Purfadila*, Dwi Retno Andriani
Program Studi Agribisnis Universitas Brawijaya
Jurusan Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian UB
*Penulis korespondensi: Septiapurfadila29@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
The research conducted at the sugar factory Modjopanggoong Tulungagung. The purpose of this
study was to analyze the factors that affect the production of white sugar that existed and
forecasting analyzing white crystal sugar production will be for the next 3 years at sugar factory
Modjopanggoong. The method used in this research is multiple linear regression and methods
of winter. The results of this study are Analysis of factors affecting the production of sugar by
using multiple linear regression analysis. The factors that most affect the production of white
sugar in the Sugar Factory Modjopanggoong milled during the year 2015 (12 period) is the
amount of sugar as the main raw material in the manufacture of white sugar because it has tcount
greater than ttabel. While the recovery rate, and the amount of labor and technology (clock
stopped) has tcount smaller than ttabel. Forecasting production of white sugar in the Sugar Factory
Modjopanggoong over the next 3 years ie 2016, 2017 and 2018 using the method of winter is
by application Minitab 16 showed that the forecasting results of white crystal sugar production
has increased and decreased. The highest amount of sugar production in the period 9 at 2017
amounted to 4385.30 Tons. While white crystal sugar production forecast the lowest in the
period 1 at 2018 amounted to 811.66 Tons. The total amount of sugar production from 2016,
2017 and 2018 amounted to 114,535.27 tons with an average is 3181.53 Ton. Forecast
production level is determined by the level of raw material used, at the beginning of season
milled raw materials are still difficult to obtain because not all can be milled cane. In addition
at the end of the sugar cane milling season is also difficult to obtain because of the ready milled
cane is running out, the one that causes the cane at the end of the milling season runs out is the
number of farmers who sends sugar cane to the mills located in Tulungagung.
study was to analyze the factors that affect the production of white sugar that existed and
forecasting analyzing white crystal sugar production will be for the next 3 years at sugar factory
Modjopanggoong. The method used in this research is multiple linear regression and methods
of winter. The results of this study are Analysis of factors affecting the production of sugar by
using multiple linear regression analysis. The factors that most affect the production of white
sugar in the Sugar Factory Modjopanggoong milled during the year 2015 (12 period) is the
amount of sugar as the main raw material in the manufacture of white sugar because it has tcount
greater than ttabel. While the recovery rate, and the amount of labor and technology (clock
stopped) has tcount smaller than ttabel. Forecasting production of white sugar in the Sugar Factory
Modjopanggoong over the next 3 years ie 2016, 2017 and 2018 using the method of winter is
by application Minitab 16 showed that the forecasting results of white crystal sugar production
has increased and decreased. The highest amount of sugar production in the period 9 at 2017
amounted to 4385.30 Tons. While white crystal sugar production forecast the lowest in the
period 1 at 2018 amounted to 811.66 Tons. The total amount of sugar production from 2016,
2017 and 2018 amounted to 114,535.27 tons with an average is 3181.53 Ton. Forecast
production level is determined by the level of raw material used, at the beginning of season
milled raw materials are still difficult to obtain because not all can be milled cane. In addition
at the end of the sugar cane milling season is also difficult to obtain because of the ready milled
cane is running out, the one that causes the cane at the end of the milling season runs out is the
number of farmers who sends sugar cane to the mills located in Tulungagung.
Keyword : Forecasting, white crystal sugar, production
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