ANALYSIS OF VEGETABLES PRICE VOLATILITY IN EAST JAVA
Aini Nur Laila*, Ratya Anindita, Tatiek Koerniawati
Jurusan Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Brawijaya Malang
*penulis korespondensi: niela_2761991@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
The demand for vegetables in East Java which tends to increase not supported by the results of the vegetable production tends to decrease. These conditions resulted to the import of vegetables to overcome those needs. With the existence of free trade system, where the
vegetable price movements in international markets that can not be predicted indirectly
caused the price fluctuations of local vegetables also can be unpredictable so risk and
uncertainty faced by farmers are getting higher. The type of vegetables that analyzed are:
tomatoes, chilies and onions. The purpose of this research are: to find out how big the value of
volatility from each vegetable are observed and to analize the influence of the vegetables price
volatility to the vegetable production. The data used are vegetables production (Kg) and
vegetables monthly price (Rp) for 15 years starting in January 1997 until December 2011. The
methods used are standard deviation, Granger Test and ECM (Error Correction Model) Test.
The result of research are: (1) Chili has obtained an average value of the greatest volatility
0,00031 persen while the lowest average value of volatility is tomatoes 0,00010 persen. Then
the onion has the average value volatility 0,00016 persen, this results show how big the risk of
loss and uncertainty for these vegetables. (2) Volatility of vegetable price has a negative
effects on vegetable production. In regression test found that the value of coefficient of each
vegetable is negative with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is -0,17, -3,44 and -
6,89. Next is Granger test that found the value of t-Statistic is less than the value of t-table (-
1,65) with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is -2,97, -3,04, -2,86. Then results
of ECM test show that all commodities value is negative to the ECT (Error Correction Term)
with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is -0,60, -0,87, - 2,84.
vegetable price movements in international markets that can not be predicted indirectly
caused the price fluctuations of local vegetables also can be unpredictable so risk and
uncertainty faced by farmers are getting higher. The type of vegetables that analyzed are:
tomatoes, chilies and onions. The purpose of this research are: to find out how big the value of
volatility from each vegetable are observed and to analize the influence of the vegetables price
volatility to the vegetable production. The data used are vegetables production (Kg) and
vegetables monthly price (Rp) for 15 years starting in January 1997 until December 2011. The
methods used are standard deviation, Granger Test and ECM (Error Correction Model) Test.
The result of research are: (1) Chili has obtained an average value of the greatest volatility
0,00031 persen while the lowest average value of volatility is tomatoes 0,00010 persen. Then
the onion has the average value volatility 0,00016 persen, this results show how big the risk of
loss and uncertainty for these vegetables. (2) Volatility of vegetable price has a negative
effects on vegetable production. In regression test found that the value of coefficient of each
vegetable is negative with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is -0,17, -3,44 and -
6,89. Next is Granger test that found the value of t-Statistic is less than the value of t-table (-
1,65) with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is -2,97, -3,04, -2,86. Then results
of ECM test show that all commodities value is negative to the ECT (Error Correction Term)
with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is -0,60, -0,87, - 2,84.
Keyword: price volatility, vegetable price, price fluctuation, volatility influence, standard deviation, Granger, ECM
Download : JURNAL
Jika Anda menyukai Artikel di blog ini, Silahkan
klik disini untuk berlangganan gratis via email, Anda akan mendapat kiriman artikel setiap ada artikel yang terbit di Our Akuntansi
0 komentar:
Post a Comment